Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
