Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
